|
What causes stock prices to change?
Stock prices change every
day as a result of market forces. By this we mean that share prices
change because of supply and demand. If more people want to buy
a stock (demand) than sell it (supply), then the price moves up.
Conversely, if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it, there
would be greater supply than demand, and the price would fall.
Understanding supply
and demand is easy. What is difficult to comprehend is what makes
people like a particular stock and dislike another stock. This comes
down to figuring out what news is positive for a company and what
news is negative. There are many answers to this problem and just
about any investor you ask has their own ideas and strategies.
That being said, the
principal theory is that the price movement of a stock indicates
what investors feel a company is worth. Don't equate a company's
value with the stock price. The value of a company is its market
capitalization, which is the stock price multiplied by the number
of shares outstanding. For example, a company that trades at $100
per share and has 1 million shares outstanding has a lesser value
than a company that trades at $50 that has 5 million shares outstanding
($100 x 1 million = $100 million while $50 x 5 million = $250 million).
To further complicate things, the price of a stock doesn't only
reflect a company's current value, it also reflects the growth that
investors expect in the future.
The most important factor
that affects the value of a company is its earnings. Earnings are
the profit a company makes, and in the long run no company can survive
without them. It makes sense when you think about it. If a company
never makes money, it isn't going to stay in business. Public companies
are required to report their earnings four times a year (once each
quarter). Wall Street watches with rabid attention at these times,
which are referred to as earnings seasons. The reason behind this
is that analysts base their future value of a company on their earnings
projection. If a company's results surprise (are better than expected),
the price jumps up. If a company's results disappoint (are worse
than expected), then the price will fall.
Of course, it's not just
earnings that can change the sentiment towards a stock (which, in
turn, changes its price). It would be a rather simple world if this
were the case! During the dotcom bubble, for example, dozens of
internet companies rose to have market capitalizations in the billions
of dollars without ever making even the smallest profit. As we all
know, these valuations did not hold, and most internet companies
saw their values shrink to a fraction of their highs. Still, the
fact that prices did move that much demonstrates that there are
factors other than current earnings that influence stocks. Investors
have developed literally hundreds of these variables, ratios and
indicators. Some you may have already heard of, such as the price/earnings
ratio, while others are extremely complicated and obscure with names
like Chaikin oscillator or moving average convergence divergence.
So, why do stock prices
change? The best answer is that nobody really knows for sure. Some
believe that it isn't possible to predict how stock prices will
change, while others think that by drawing charts and looking at
past price movements, you can determine when to buy and sell. The
only thing we do know is that stocks are volatile and can change
in price extremely rapidly.
The important things
to grasp about this subject are the following:
1. At the most fundamental
level, supply and demand in the market determines stock price.
2. Price times the number
of shares outstanding (market capitalization) is the value of a
company. Comparing just the share price of two companies is meaningless.
3. Theoretically, earnings
are what affect investors' valuation of a company, but there are
other indicators that investors use to predict stock price. Remember,
it is investors' sentiments, attitudes and expectations that ultimately
affect stock prices.
4. There are many theories
that try to explain the way stock prices move the way they do. Unfortunately,
there is no one theory that can explain everything.
Next
Topic
Buying
Stocks |