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PORTFOLIO
MANAGEMENT: Follow 10 personal finance axioms
What's
the key to making good personal finance and investment choices?
It isn't necessary to understand the inner workings of the securities
markets or the mathematical economies underlying investment theory.
Unfortunately,
these personal finance principles are easier to understand than
to implement. For many individuals, it is easier to plan to save
and invest next month rather than to begin immediately. However,
visualizing the peace of mind and security that comes with maintaining
a disciplined, successful savings program can help you get started.
Personal
Finance Axiom #1: Start now, not later.
By investing
early, you are using the greatest tool available to an investor-the
power of compounding, where invested money grows exponentially,
not algebraically.
Consider two young investors, both age 35 and both of whom want
to retire at age 70; therefore, each has a 35-year investment horizon.
They both also have a personal finance goal of accumulating $1 million
by retirement. But they have devised different strategies for attaining
that goal:
•
Investor A will invest $4,500 annually for the first 10 years, and
then will save no more during years 11 through 35; the total investment
dollars committed are $45,000.
•
Investor B will postpone any investing until after the first 10
years, but then will invest $4,500 a year for the next 25 years;
his total investment commitment is $112,500.
Let's assume that both earn 11% annually on their savings. Where
do the two investors stand at age 70? Investor A will realize his
goal—by age 70, he will have $1,022,293, even though he actually
put away money for only 10 years. Poor Investor B, however, does
not reach his personal finance goal—he has only $514,860 at
age 70, even though he invested two and one-half times that of Investor
A. He simply started too late.
The basic
personal finance principle: START NOW, NOT LATER.
Personal
Finance Axiom #2: Set reasonable savings goals, then live below
your means.
Being frugal
should be the cornerstone of any personal finance plan. Those individuals
who gain financial independence do so by budgeting, controlling
expenses and saving a reasonable portion of their income. They value
thrift and discipline. They understand that the keys to being a
successful investor are having a smart personal finance plan and
adopting an attitude of conservation and stewardship. The route
to financial independence is a slow accumulation of wealth versus
a fantasy of get-rich-quick investing.
The key
to wealth accumulation is to set reasonable savings goals and then
to "pay yourself first" by setting aside that savings
amount with each paycheck you receive. Each time you get a pay raise,
increase your monthly savings by an amount with which you are comfortable.
The amount
you save need not be large, but if you pay yourself first each time
you receive a paycheck, the magic of compounding will help you build
wealth.
Personal
Finance Axiom #3: Know what to expect based on a long history of
investor experiences.
When developing
any personal finance plan, there are many places where individuals
can and should invest. What rates of return should you expect? The
word "expect" is important here, because seldom do investments
provide us with the exact rate of return we thought they would.
Therefore, looking at average rates of return over long periods
of time is extremely helpful in setting expectations.
You can
see that stock investors have fared much better in the past decades
than other investors. But it was not without considerable uncertainty
as to what could happen.
The annual returns of small stocks varies the most, while the returns
of large-company stocks are a close second; both of these areas
also produced the highest returns over the long term. The annual
returns of Treasury bills varied the least, and at the same time
they produced the lowest returns.
Personal
Finance Axiom #4: Manage risk wisely—it cannot be avoided.
Investment
risk has two important components: volatility risk and inflation
risk.
Volatility risk is the risk that actual returns vary compared to
expected returns over time; in general, higher returns go hand-in-hand
with greater volatility risk.
Inflation
risk relates to a loss in purchasing power through general price
inflation. For example, you can see that between January 1, 1926,
and December 31, 2006, the dollar lost more than 90% of its purchasing
power. At the end of 2006 it took $11 to purchase a basket of goods
similar to what could have been purchased for $1 at the beginning
of 1926.
While you
cannot eliminate either volatility risk or inflation risk in your
personal finance plan, you can minimize both by understanding the
nature of investment risk and selecting investments suitable for
your investment time horizon. For shorter-term time horizons, volatility
risk is more of a concern; for longer-term time horizons, inflation
risk becomes a greater concern.
For this
reason, money invested for short-term personal finance needs should
be invested differently than money earmarked as part of your long-term
plans. The common error among many individuals who are saving for
retirement is to reduce their average earning rate significantly,
and thus their accumulated savings, by attempting to avoid short-term
earnings volatility. This approach exposes their personal finance
plan fully to inflation risk.
For short-term investment periods, the returns from stocks are clearly
more volatile (or risky) than from Treasury bills or bonds. However,
for longer-term holding periods, the returns from stocks are both
less risky and higher than for bonds after adjusting for inflation.
Personal
Finance Axiom #5: Diversify, diversify, diversify.
Portfolios
should be diversified at all levels. By allocating among the major
asset categories (stocks, bonds and cash), you minimize the two
kinds of investment risk that we identified in Axiom 4.
As part
of your personal finance plan, risk can further be reduced by diversifying
within those asset categories. For example, a stock portfolio should
be built by investing in the common stock of firms in different
industries. Buy only "good quality" firms that will have
an increasing demand for their products. Set a goal of 15 to 20
different industries. Broad-based mutual funds offer significant
diversification benefits to investors in all asset categories. A
solid investment vehicle for the investor who wants to diversify
broadly without attempting to purchase individual stocks is to purchase
shares in a market index mutual fund, with low management fees.
In particular, a single share of an S&P 500 index fund is widely
diversified and represents the equity market nicely.
Personal
Finance Axiom #6: Maintain a long-term perspective—over time,
the stock market rewards the patient investor.
If investors
are rewarded for assuming some kinds of risk. Then why would you
not always invest in common stocks, rather than in other securities,
such as bonds?
The answer relates to the length of time you are willing and able
to wait for returns. An investor in common stocks must often wait
longer to earn the higher returns than those provided by bonds—maybe
as long as five to 10 years.
What if
an individual invested in a portfolio of large-company stocks for
five years or even 15 years? For large-company common stocks, the
average rate of return for the last 81 years was 10.4%. However,
the best year was a fantastic 54.0% return, while in the worst year
it was a loss of 43.3%. But if you look at all of the five-year
investment periods from 1926 through 2006 (1926-1931, 1927-1932,
etc.), the best return would have been reduced to 28.6% and the
worst return would not have been so drastic as before, only losing
12.5%. As you extend the investment horizon, the variability in
the returns continues to decline. Yet the average return overall
is still 10.4%. Thus, an investor will have maintained the same
return on average, but reduced the year-to-year fluctuations by
holding investments over longer time periods.
Patience
is a virtue, even when investing. In the world of personal finance,
the market rewards patience.
Personal
Finance Axiom #7: Avoid the temptation to time investments based
on what you—or the experts—"expect" the overall
market to do.
Frequently,
you hear an economist or a financial consultant in the news making
projections about the financial markets. However, investors, even
the professionals, do not have some "super vision" when
it comes to knowing the direction of the markets. If they did, implementing
a sound personal finance plan would be easy and everybody would
be a millionaire!
One study
of large U.S. pension plans found that deciding when to get in and
out of the market had little impact on the relative performance
of the pension funds. The researchers estimated that market timing
accounted for less than 2% of the variation explaining the relative
performance of the different investment managers. This study, along
with others, indicates that you simply cannot consistently identify
the best time to invest.
When carrying
out your personal finance plan, you cannot expect to do better by
"timing" investments than if you routinely invest each
and every month because the market moves in fits and starts. Missing
the few good days because you are out of the market can seriously
reduce your return.
Therefore,
don't worry about timing your investments, instead just make regular
investing a part of your personal finance plan, and always be cautious
when listening to all the "experts."
Personal
Finance Axiom #8: Know what you are paying for and don't pay for
what you don't receive—avoid loads, commissions, and expensive
investment advice.
Brokers,
distributors and others charge a commission for putting you into
mutual funds that, on average, perform below other available funds.
Most load (commission) funds will also charge you a distribution
fee (the shareholder is forced to give up income to pay brokers
and distributors for selling shares to new shareholders).
Funds that
charge these kinds of loads and fees do not necessarily have higher
returns. In fact, none of those charges go to those who are actually
managing the portfolio, so you are not paying extra for any kind
of management expertise. Why should you pay more in continuing expenses
to receive returns that are not necessarily better—particularly
since your bottom line return is reduced by those expenses? As part
of your personal finance plan, you should always seek out no-load
funds and low brokerage commissions.
Personal Finance Axiom #9: Beware of the experts and "hot hands."
You may
be surprised to know that you can do better than the professional
money managers most of the time. Over several time periods of 10
years, an investment in a S&P index fund outperformed the great
majority of the actively managed stock funds.
Individual stocks are fine, but require considerable time and expertise.
Finding a good mutual fund for long-term investing takes less time
and effort and reasonable success can be expected if you do not
talk or listen to commissioned brokers.
As part
of your personal finance plan, stick with mutual funds that have
a high (four or five) Morningstar rating, no 12b-1 (distribution)
fee, low expense ratios, no commission, low turnover, and have an
experienced portfolio manager.
Personal
Finance Axiom #10: Don't pay taxes unless unavoidable and then pay
them later, not sooner.
The simplest
way for an investor to defer or avoid taxes is through a 401(k)
retirement plan, which is available for most corporate employees.
Additional tax-favored plans include regular IRAs, Roth IRAs, SEPs,
and Keogh plans.
Money saved outside of tax-favored retirement plans receives more
favorable tax treatment if it is invested in common stocks than
in bonds or bank savings accounts or CDs. Increases in the value
of common stocks due to a company's retention of earnings are not
taxed until the stock is sold, which can result in the deferral
of federal income tax for many years. In addition, long-term gains
on the sale of common stock are typically taxed at lower rates than
ordinary income.
In contrast,
interest income from the ownership of bonds, savings accounts, and
CDs is taxed at ordinary tax rates at the time of receipt, which
is normally annually. The combination of federal income taxes and
inflation sometimes operates to produce a loss in purchasing power
to an investor even while an investor is receiving interest income.
The ramifications of paying taxes on your investments should play
an important role in how you structure and implement your personal
financial plan.
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